A research team at National Institute of Technology Rourkela, led by Mirza Khalid Baig, Assistant Professor, Biotechnology and Medical Engineering, has developed a new AI-driven approach to improve blood sugar predictions for people with diabetes.
Co-authored by Baig and his research scholar Deepjyoti Kalita, the findings of this study have been published in the prestigious IEEE Journal of Biomedical and Health Informatics. The research presents a machine-learning model that enhances the accuracy of blood glucose level prediction, helping individuals and healthcare providers make better and personalised treatment decisions.
Diabetes is a major health challenge in India, with cases expected to reach 124.9 million by 2045. Effective diabetes management relies on regular glucose monitoring to prevent dangerous spikes (hyperglycemia) and drops (hypoglycemia) in blood sugar levels. Managing diabetes can be difficult due to a lack of specialists, unequal access to healthcare, low medication adherence, and poor self-care. These challenges make it harder for patients to keep their blood sugar levels under control, increasing the risk of serious health problems.
New digital health technologies, especially those that use Artificial Intelligence (AI), offer a way to improve diabetes care and reduce costs. Machine learning (ML) has been used in many areas of diabetes research, from basic studies to predictive tools that can help doctors and patients make better and timely decisions. However, AI learning models, especially predictive AI models, have a few drawbacks. Many of these models work like a “black box,” meaning their predictions are difficult to understand. This lack of transparency makes it hard for doctors and patients to fully trust them. Furthermore, traditional models, such as statistical forecasting methods or basic neural networks, often fail to recognise long-term glucose fluctuations and require complex fine-tuning.
The researchers at NIT Rourkela focused on improving glucose forecasting using deep learning techniques. Their approach incorporates a specialised AI model that learns from past blood sugar trends and predicts future levels more accurately than existing methods. Unlike traditional forecasting models, which often struggle with long-term trends and require manual adjustments, this model processes glucose data automatically, identifying key patterns and making precise predictions.
Speaking about the uniqueness of this research, Prof. Mirza Khalid Baig, Assistant Professor, Biotechnology and Medical Engineering, NIT Rourkela, said, “According to the results of ICMR INDIAB study released in 2023, the overall prevalence of diabetes in our country is 11.4 per cent and that of prediabetes is 15.3 per cent. Hence, it is crucial that we develop new solutions to tackle this problem. Our core innovation lies in using multi-head attention layers within a neural basis expansion network, which allows the model to focus on the most relevant data points while ignoring unnecessary noise. This results in better performance without the need for large amounts of training data or extensive computing power. By combining precision with efficiency, we aim to provide a practical tool that can be integrated into digital health solutions, helping patients and doctors manage diabetes more effectively.”
The model developed by NIT Rourkela outperformed existing forecasting techniques by providing more reliable blood sugar predictions. Since the model prioritises key information in blood sugar trends, it
enables prediction that matches an individual’s unique glucose patterns. As a result, it offers improved accuracy, which is important for making timely and personalised adjustments to future insulin doses, meals, and physical activity. Furthermore, the model is optimised to work efficiently on devices like smartphones and insulin pumps, making it more accessible for everyday diabetes management.
In the long run, this AI-driven approach has the potential to enhance diabetes care through various applications. It could be integrated into smart insulin pumps to automate insulin delivery, incorporated into mobile health apps for real-time glucose tracking, or used in clinical settings to support doctors in making personalised treatment plans.
Currently, the researchers are planning on testing the developed technology through extensive clinical trials at hospitals, in collaboration with senior diabetologists in Odisha, such as Dr Jayanta Kumar Panda and his team. The team also acknowledges support from DST, DBT and NIT Rourkela for this project.