Appreciating its demographic reality, India must revisit its population, gender, and developmental paradigms

On World Population Day, Dr Mayur Trivedi, Associate Professor, Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar (IIPHG) highlights that moving away from stereotypical arguments revolving around the population explosion and blaming a certain section of society for it, India needs to accept its demographic reality from a futuristic perspective to develop productive solutions

Over the last few decades, India has seen a lot of improvement in infant mortality rate (IMR), the probability of death before one’s first birthday, and total fertility rate (TFR), – the average number of children to a woman.  Corresponding changes in the structure and composition of the population in terms of declining proportions of children, increasing proportions of elderly, and altering sex ratios in these groups are also observed. India’s TFR has declined from more than 5 in 1971 to around 3.6 in 1991 and further to a replacement level of 2 in 2019-21. This decline is observed across the socioeconomic spectrum with sharper gains among the minorities, the poor, and the marginalized groups. The young-age fertility i.e. pregnancy and births in women aged 15 -19 and 20-24 years also declined as women prefer to delay their pregnancies. The age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) for 15-19 years declined by 72 per cent (from 43 to 12 births per thousand women) over a decade during 2008-2018.  The ASFR for 20-24 years also declined by 36 per cent.

The decline in fertility matched well with the decline in early-age mortality as well. India’s IMR declined rapidly during the 1908s from more than 100 to around 70. After a slow decline during the 1990s and early part of the 21st century, the IMR declined rapidly from 50 in 2009 to 28 in 2020. However, such a decline has come at a price.  The sex ratio of IMR has worsened from 102 in 1982 to 90 in 2015, indicating higher mortality of girls during infancy during that period. This could be because of neglect owing to son preference. Although male and female IMR is now equal nationally, the gender disparity prevails in some states. India’s son preference is visible from its declining child sex ratio from 976 in 1961 to 914 in 2011, with a corresponding decline in TFR from 5.9 to 2.4 during the same period.  The rapid decline in fertility affects fertility behaviour in general, and sex-specificity in birth, in particular. The slow improvement in malnutrition in most Indian states is also found to have connections to son preference.

An important structural change in India’s population is the expansion of young people. Two-thirds of India is below 35 years and 22 per cent of the total population is in the age group of 18-29 years. With such a large young population, India is at a crucial juncture of the demographic dividend that can become a disaster as a very high number of potentially productive youth is not in education, training, or employment. India needs a paradigm shift in the development and social outlook to involve this youth productively at all levels from home to society. The recent pandemic and its economic aftermath have added to the woes of India’s problem of youth bulge that can alter her course of development. The demographic changes must be linked to developmental outcomes, with an important arena of gender and status of women through her life cycle. For example, increased school enrolment and longer stays of girls in education delay marriage, and thus, the first and subsequent pregnancies. Educated and empowered women tend to negotiate safe sex and family planning better, directly affecting their fertility behaviour. On the other hand, changing the structure of the population would increase the number and proportion of elderly women, most of whom are illiterate and lack any form of social security.

Moving away from stereotypical arguments revolving around the population explosion and blaming a certain section of society for it, India needs to accept its demographic reality from a futuristic perspective to develop productive solutions. The pace of population growth has halted significantly; yet, the numbers will continue. This is because India now has many young couples having fewer children, unlike previous generations that had fewer couples with many children. At this juncture, it is important to revisit the policy orientation and engendering of family planning interventions, child health interventions, adolescent interventions (which indirectly affect the fertility decisions and behaviour of young adults), and elderly care interventions. The gender sensitisation of young people can be immensely useful in this endeavour. It is also extremely crucial to fuel the economy to increase the employment scenario so that the youth are engaged productively lest we face more conflict and violence as seen in many countries with similar demographics and unemployment patterns.