The human metapneumovirus hype and India’s stock market tumble

It began with whispers—a virus first reported as spreading rapidly in China, sparking concerns of a massive outbreak, and now making its way to multiple cities in India. Human metapneumovirus, or HMPV, a name most had never heard before, suddenly appeared in headlines, stirring memories of the chaos caused by COVID-19. But this time, something was different. The virus wasn’t new, nor was it as dangerous as the headlines suggested. Yet, the stock market reeled, healthcare stocks surged, and billions of rupees evaporated in panic. What really happened? Could a known virus, with decades of documentation, cause such a frenzy? Or was there something deeper—a calculated exploitation of fear? This is the story of how HMPV triggered market swings, exposed vulnerabilities in investor behaviour, and revealed deeper questions about the role of media and public perception, leaving behind lessons for the future.

When the first reports of HMPV appeared in January 2025, it seemed routine—a common virus identified in routine medical cases. But soon, news outlets began carrying alarming headlines. “First Case of HMPV in City X!” screamed one. “Second Case Confirmed in City Y,” announced another. The headlines painted a picture of an epidemic spreading across the country. In reality, HMPV is an old acquaintance of the medical community. First identified in 2001, the virus causes respiratory infections, primarily in children, the elderly, and immunocompromised individuals. Its symptoms range from mild to moderate and are rarely life-threatening. It had coexisted with humans for decades, largely unnoticed by the broader public.

But this time, the public’s reaction was far from ordinary. The timing couldn’t have been worse. The Indian stock market was already precarious, declining steadily through December 2024 due to global economic uncertainties and inflation concerns. The reports of HMPV acted as a catalyst, triggering widespread panic. On January 6, 2025, the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) saw one of its worst single-day losses, with the total market capitalisation plunging by ₹11.85 lakh crore. Investors scrambled to sell their holdings, and the panic rippled through every sector.

Curiously, amid this chaos, healthcare stocks soared. Healthcare stocks such as Dr Lal PathLabs, Thyrocare, Apollo Hospitals, Narayana Hrudayalaya, and others saw stock prices climb dramatically. Investors, expecting a surge in demand for diagnostics, consultations, and hospitalisations, poured money into the sector. Apollo Hospitals, which started the year at₹7,296 per share, rose to₹7,436 by January 7. Narayana Hrudayalaya saw its share price increase from ₹1,312 to ₹1,375. Thyrocare experienced the steepest rise, climbing from ₹914 on January 3 to ₹1,017 by January 6.

But just as quickly as they rose, these stocks began to fall. By January 10, Apollo had corrected to ₹7,025, Narayana Hrudayalaya to ₹1,303, and Thyrocare plummeted to ₹861. What caused this sudden reversal? The answer lies in the intervention of experts and authorities. The Indian Health Ministry and leading infection experts, alarmed by the media frenzy, stepped in to clarify the situation. They emphasised that HMPV was not a new virus and posed no significant threat. Their statements helped calm the panic, leading to a correction in the market.

Yet, questions linger. Why did certain sections of the media continue to report isolated cases of HMPV, even after clarifications? Why did financial outlets highlight “first-case” narratives as if a deadly epidemic were unfolding? Was this a case of oversight, or did it point to a deeper misunderstanding or unintended influence on market sentiment?

The broader stock market had been reeling from HMPV fears and global pressures. Inflation, foreign fund withdrawals, and domestic policy uncertainties had created a shaky foundation. Sectors like hospitality, airlines, and banking bore the brunt of the panic. With the ongoing HMPV virus scare, airline and hotel stocks crashed nearly 5 per cent. Indian Hotels, for instance, saw its stock price fall by nearly 15 per cent during the scare. The Nifty PSU Bank index dropped by 3.4 per cent, with Union Bank of India leading the losses at 7 per cent. Consumer goods companies like Dabur also suffered; its stock declined by 4 per cent amid weaker sales projections.

The contrast between the healthcare sector’s brief surge and the overall market’s decline was stark. It raises a critical question: Could large institutional investors, such as hedge funds, investment firms, or mutual funds, have capitalised on the situation? Imagine a large institutional investor observing the declining hospitality sector and reallocating funds to healthcare stocks during the hype. If an investor had moved₹500 crore from Indian Hotels and similar stocks to healthcare stocks at the start of January, they could have avoided a loss of₹75 crore in the hospitality sector and gained₹50 crore in healthcare stocks. The net financial benefit? Over ₹125 crore in a matter of days. The potential for profit in such situations is enormous, but so is the ethical dilemma.

This isn’t the first time market sentiment has been influenced by public health narratives. During the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, pharmaceutical companies like Roche and GlaxoSmithKline saw their stocks soar as governments stockpiled antiviral drugs like Tamiflu and Relenza. Media coverage amplified public fears, driving demand. Later, questions arose about whether pharmaceutical interests had influenced the World Health Organisation’s pandemic declaration. Though no concrete evidence of manipulation was found, the alignment of financial gains and public narratives remains suspicious.

Another notable example is the GameStop saga of 2021. Retail investors on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets coordinated a massive buying spree of GameStop stock, driving its price from $18 to $483 in weeks. The media’s coverage of this “David versus Goliath” story further fuelled the frenzy. While many retail investors profited, some big players capitalised on the volatility, making millions. Hedge funds like Melvin Capital, which had heavily shorted the stock, faced billions in losses, while opportunistic institutional players exploited the chaos to their advantage. The GameStop episode demonstrated how collective sentiment and media narratives could disrupt markets, blurring the lines between organic trends and deliberate manipulation.

The HMPV scare is a reminder that markets are not just influenced by data and fundamentals but also by perception. And perception can be shaped, intentionally or otherwise. While there is no direct evidence of deliberate manipulation in this case, the patterns are troubling. By continuing to report isolated cases despite expert clarifications, financial media outlets sustained fear and likely influenced market behaviour.

So, what can be done to prevent such scenarios in the future? First, media accountability must improve. Sensationalism in reporting, especially during health crises, can have far-reaching consequences. Media outlets must prioritise accuracy and context over clicks and headlines. Second, infection experts and public health officials must proactively engage with the media and the public. Timely, transparent communication can counter misinformation and prevent panic. Third, regulatory oversight must be strengthened. Market regulators like SEBI should monitor unusual trading patterns and investigate potential manipulations during such events.

Lastly, investor education is crucial. Retail investors often succumb to hype and panic, leading to poor financial decisions. Equipping them with tools to analyse markets critically can mitigate emotional reactions to sensational news.

It is also important to acknowledge that while there is no clear evidence of stock market manipulation in the HMPV case, the swings observed demonstrate how outbreak hype can result in massive financial impacts. Such events underline the need for caution, transparency, and accountability in managing public narratives and their economic consequences.

The HMPV scare may have subsided, but its lessons remain. It exposed vulnerabilities in public health, media, and financial markets. We can better manage future challenges by addressing these vulnerabilities, ensuring that neither public trust nor economic stability is compromised. The story of HMPV is not just about a virus—it’s about how we respond to crises, the narratives we believe, and the systems we trust.