The world will be free of tobacco addicts by 2040: an optimistic outlook

World No Tobacco Day brings a crucial reminder of the ongoing battle against tobacco addiction and its severe health implications. However, recent data from the World Health Organisation (WHO) provides a beacon of hope: the world could be free of tobacco by 2040. This ambitious vision is supported by promising trends in smoking cessation, alternative habits, and public health initiatives.

Decline in active smokers

A comparative study by WHO highlights a significant decline in the number of active smokers worldwide. The global smoking rate has decreased from 27 per cent in 2000 to 19 per cent in 2020. This decline is attributed to stringent tobacco control policies, increased awareness (including commercial activities) of smoking hazards, and higher taxes on tobacco products. Countries like Australia and the United Kingdom have seen particularly sharp declines due to their aggressive anti-smoking campaigns.

Quitting smoking: A growing trend

Encouragingly, the number of people quitting smoking is on the rise. A recent study by the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) shows that over the past decade about 40 per cent of smokers in high-income countries, such as countries in Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, and parts of Africa, have successfully quit. In the United States, the percentage of former smokers rose from 13 per cent in 2000 to 20 per cent in 2020. This trend is bolstered by effective cessation programs, support groups, and medical interventions such as nicotine replacement therapy and prescription medications.

Adopting alternatives to smoking

While quitting smoking altogether is ideal, many have turned to alternative habits. The rise of e-cigarettes, nicotine patches, lozenges, and gums provide smokers with less harmful options. The WHO reports that about 15 per cent of former smokers have switched to e-cigarettes, citing them as less harmful but not entirely risk-free. E-cigarettes and vaping devices, although controversial, have been instrumental in reducing conventional cigarette use.

Countries with the highest smoking rates and tobacco-related diseases

Despite the global decline, some countries still struggle with high smoking rates. Bangladesh, Indonesia, Russia, and China top the list, with smoking rates exceeding 30 per cent. These countries face significant challenges due to cultural norms, weak tobacco control policies, and the tobacco industry’s influence.

On the health front, countries with the highest incidence of lung diseases due to smoking include China, India, and the United States. These nations report the highest numbers of lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and other respiratory illnesses directly linked to tobacco use. The economic burden of these diseases is immense, straining healthcare systems and reducing productivity.

Tobacco use dramatically increases the chances of developing serious lung diseases. According to the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion studies, smokers have an 85 per cent chance of developing COPD (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease), a 25 per cent chance of developing asthma, and a 15 per cent chance of developing lung cancer. These sobering statistics highlight the critical need for tobacco cessation and prevention efforts.

Youth and Smoking

The age demographics of smokers reveal that young adults are the most affected group. In May 2024, WHO released a global report which highlighted globally 37 million children aged as young as 13-15 years have been smoking tobacco, and the rate of e-cigarette use among adolescents surpassed that of adults. However, anti-smoking campaigns and educational programs in schools are making strides in curbing this trend.

Evaluating Tobacco Alternatives

The market for tobacco alternatives has expanded significantly, offering various products like e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products, and smokeless tobacco. While these alternatives are generally considered less harmful than traditional cigarettes, their long-term health effects are still under scrutiny. Studies indicate that e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products contain fewer carcinogens but are not completely risk-free. In fact, it has been found that e-cigarette use increases conventional use of cigarettes, particularly among non-smoking youth, by nearly three times.

Nicotine patches and gums are among the safer options, aiding many in their journey to quit smoking. These products have proven beneficial in reducing withdrawal symptoms and doubling the chances of quitting successfully compared to going cold turkey.

A Tobacco-Free Future

Over the past three years, there has been a growing global movement towards living a tobacco-free lifestyle. Governments worldwide have implemented stricter regulations on the sale and marketing of tobacco products, creating an environment that discourages use and encourages quitting. More people are recognising the urgent need to quit smoking and vaping to protect their health. The decline in smoking rates, coupled with the rise in quitting and adoption of alternatives, paints a hopeful picture. Continued efforts in public health education, robust tobacco control policies, and support for smoking cessation will be pivotal in achieving this goal.