Epidemiologists believe viral and mosquito-borne pathogens are priority concerns for disease outbreaks, Abbott survey reports

Abbott announced the findings of a new survey among leading infectious disease experts around the world on the state of pandemic preparedness and found that while most agree that preparation has improved since the COVID-19 pandemic, respondents say significant gaps remain in building surveillance programs to identify emerging pathogens, public health funding and having adequate testing infrastructure capabilities (1).

The survey, commissioned by the Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition, asked more than 100 experts in virology, epidemiology and infectious diseases around the world about their priorities for addressing the gaps in readiness for disease outbreaks, their views on how the changing environment is impacting infectious diseases, and their suggestions for building a resilient healthcare system capable of identifying and responding to emerging disease outbreaks around the world. 

“Just as scientists have developed sophisticated monitoring systems to track emerging storms and hurricanes, our job as virus hunters is to identify pathogens that have the potential to spark outbreaks in order to stay one step ahead,” said Gavin Cloherty, PhD, head of infectious disease research, Abbott and head of the Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition. “Disease surveillance acts as our radar, helping us prioritise which viruses are most likely to trigger an outbreak and where those outbreaks may occur.”

When asked to classify the types of pathogens that are most likely to start outbreaks (1):

• Respondents were evenly split on whether a new pathogen or changes in a known disease were a bigger threat for large-scale outbreaks. 
• Nearly 94 per cent believe viral pathogens are most likely to lead to widespread outbreaks, followed by bacteria, fungal and parasitic infections. 
• A pathogen that is highly transmissible, a novel virus with no tests, treatments or vaccines available, and a virus that can transmit silently are the factors most likely to accelerate a local outbreak into an epidemic or pandemic; a known pathogen that’s now drug resistant to treatments, a virus that causes high mortality, or one with high morbidity were less likely. 

The survey also asked infectious disease experts their perspective on the impact changes in the climate could have on the severity and frequency of infectious disease outbreaks, including extreme weather events and where insects and animals live. Experts identified mosquito-borne pathogens (61 per cent) as representing the greatest threat to human health as the climate changes, compared to avian (21 per cent), animal (14 per cent) or tick-born (4 per cent) pathogens (1).

Viruses from mosquitoes – including dengue fever, chikungunya, malaria and Nipah – are common in tropical areas, including south Asia. Scientists are finding that warmer temperatures and more flooding are pushing mosquitos that can carry these diseases to new places. They also predict that 1.3 billion people could be impacted by Zika by 2050 and 61 per cent of the world’s population could be impacted by dengue by 2080 (3-4).

The survey results showed that infectious disease experts believe that robust tracking of changing insect ranges, animal habitats and their migrations, and extreme weather events are important to understand changing risk patterns for infectious diseases.

“Tracking outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases such as dengue that could be impacted by climate change is critical in settings such as India,” said Sunil S Solomon, MBBS, PhD, MPH, Chairman and Managing Trustee, YRGCARE. “Also, in environments such as India where the majority of people seek care in the private sector, active surveillance should expand to private settings as well to enable earlier identification of outbreaks. In some outbreaks, even one day sooner could have dramatic public health ramifications.”

As part of the survey, respondents were asked to share their priorities for addressing the most urgent gaps in the world’s current state of readiness. Surveillance programs to identify emerging pathogens, funding for public health infrastructure, testing infrastructure capabilities, increasing the numbers of epidemiologists and frontline workers, and diagnostic test development were cited as the top five areas for investment.  

Private-public partnerships like the Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition, a network of more than 20 scientific and public health organisations around the globe, are focused on identifying, tracking and responding to known and emerging disease outbreaks to help prevent the next pandemic. The Coalition also partners with other entities such as the Centers for Research in Emerging Infectious Diseases (CREID) Network, the Global Virus Network (GVN) and the Training Programs in Epidemiology and Public Health Interventions Network (TEPHINET), who have an ongoing commitment to pandemic preparedness, including training the next generation of epidemiologists and having an early detection and rapid response to outbreaks. 

Informed by the findings from the survey, members of the Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition recommend focusing on three priorities to maintain and strengthen the ability to manage local, regional and global infectious disease outbreaks:

• The need to address gaps: Public health systems need surveillance programs to quickly identify new pathogens and outbreaks using the diverse set of tools available. Funding for public health should be available to sustain these programs and help train the next generation of virus hunters who help identify and respond to outbreaks as well as educate the public on infectious diseases.​
• Know what we’re looking for – While every outbreak is important to understand, only some have the potential to spark national, regional or global health concerns. Understanding the profile that presents the most risk enables the healthcare community to calibrate efforts to protect public health.​ As viruses are discovered in new locations, it’s important for the medical community and the general public to know what viruses may be circulating, pointing to the need to continue strengthening surveillance and education efforts. 
• Understand the changing environment: Experts are nearly unanimous in their view that the evolving way humans, animals and insects overlap and interact will change the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks. Continued research and investments in new technology are needed to help understand how those dynamics are at play locally – old diseases in new regions, acceleration of routes of transmission – to help guide more effective preparation.

References

1. APDC Pandemic Preparedness Survey. Full report available on Abbott.com. 
2. World Health Organization. Research response to pathogen X during a pandemic. Retrieved from https://www.who.int/news-room/events/detail/2024/01/19/default-calendar/Research-response-to-pathogen-X-during-a-pandemic
3. Smith, P. et al. (2024). Climate change impacts on global biodiversity. Global Change Biology, 30(2), 123-145. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15384
4. Brown, L et al. (2019). Microbial interactions in the human gut. Nature Microbiology, 4(8), 1234-1245. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-019-0476-8